The market reaction to the Iran war is already visible in commodities. Since Feb 28 (war escalation), the data shows: • WTI Oil +27% • Brent +18% • Natural Gas +6% • Corn +4% Meanwhile: • Gold −0.6% • Copper −2.2% • Silver −6% • Platinum −7% The takeaway is counterintuitive: in real geopolitical crises, energy moves first — not gold. Why? Because wars don’t start as financial crises. They start as supply chain crises. No oil → trucks stop. No gas → factories shut down. Look at the 2022 European energy crisis: when the gas supply collapsed, the assets that exploded weren't precious metals, it was energy. Second category: Agricultural commodities This is the most overlooked corner of macro investing. Gold helps preserve wealth in peaceful times. But food determines survival in the crisis. ...