Question I get asked often, when will the Fed start QE given the war? Answer: The Federal Reserve has already effectively restarted a form of balance sheet expansion often interpreted as a restart of quantitative easing (QE) in December 2025, following the official end of quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025. Key Timeline and Policy Shift • QT End Date: The Fed halted its multi-year balance sheet reduction program (QT) on December 1, 2025, after shrinking its holdings by approximately $2.4 trillion from a peak of around $8.93 trillion in mid-2022 down to roughly $6.5–6.6 trillion by late 2025. This decision was announced in late October 2025 and stemmed from concerns that bank reserves were approaching levels that could strain money market functioning and short-term interest rate control. • QE/Restart of Expansion: Just days later (announced around December 10, 2025, with purchases beginning shortly after, e.g., December 12 in some reports), the Fed initiated reserve management purchases (RMPs) of Treasury securities — primarily short-term Treasury bills at an initial pace of around $40 billion per month. These operations are front-loaded initially to build or maintain “ample” reserves, with plans to taper the pace later (potentially after a few months, such as into mid-2026). • The Fed officially labels these as technical “reserve management” actions to support its ample-reserves operating framework, not traditional QE tied to broader economic stimulus or lowering long-term rates. • However, many analysts, economists, and market commentators describe this as a de facto restart of QE or balance sheet expansion, as it involves active purchases that increase the Fed’s holdings and inject liquidity into the system reversing the contractionary effects of QT. Remember last FOMC with Jerome Powell as chair is March 18th and his final day as chair is May 15th. Everything is likely to change then, perhaps even technically the start of “stimulus” named QE.