I am way out of my depth here, but seems to me like Iran war situation mostly introduces downside skew to markets? And the longer it continues the worse the skew gets Global trade is so interconnected that there are all kinds of negative second-order effects (forget oil, slowed helium trade -> impacts semiconductors?) and non-linear impacts (oil storage used up then production has to stop) Meanwhile, it's hard to see where upside surprise comes from (other than US backing down?)