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- If you continue the METR trend, you see ~100h models by end of the year! (~8x more powerful than now)
- METR will really struggle to have the benchmarks needed to assess models of that power
- We can no longer rule out significant automation of AI development THIS YEAR

Mar 5, 23:17
New post: on Jan 14, I predicted that SWE time horizon by EOY would be ~24 hours. Now I think it'll be >100 hours, and maybe unbounded. For the first time, I don't see solid evidence against AI R&D automation *this year.* Link below.

@Douglas_Schon The mean ratio p80/p50 is ~0.19... it's remarkably stable.
@djinnius @microfounded @eli_lifland I also have a Substack

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