The old conventional wisdom: Wars produce initial spikes in presidential approval ratings, followed by crashes once they inevitably turn into quagmires. The new CW: lol, nothing matters, because wars feel functionally more distant from Americans than ever.

I do think Iran presents some particular downside risks for Trump: 1. Oil price spikes 2. Foreign adventurism = backtracking from implicit and explicit campaign promises 3. Partnering with Israel makes the domestic politics more complicated (also for Dems, to be fair)