A big fail in the New York Times today with the claim that "31 is the new 21." The Times leads readers to believe today's young women will make up lost fertility in their 30s and 40s. But all evidence indicates they will not. 🧵.

First, the Times is ignorant of what recent research shows about age and infertility. A big 2023 study of three million women by Geruso, Spears and LoPalo found that the ability to get pregnant is much lower in the 30s than the 20s. So unfortunately, 31 is not the new 21. 2/4

Second, the fertility collapse tracks plunging rates of partnering in the US and elsewhere in the world. There is no reason to expect birthrates to miraculously recover when people are single at higher rates than ever before. (Chart by @jburnmurdoch.)

Third, we have new CDC data showing what is actually happening with fertility above age 30. Fertility fell for women age 30-34 and it was basically flat for women above age 35. There is simply no fertility recovery underway for women above age 30. 4/4 (HT @BradWilcoxIFS.)