.@opinionlabsxyz is currently undervalued. My observations and thoughts👇 Currently, there are three dimensions to reference the valuation of Opinion: 1⃣ Fundamental data: Opinions is currently firmly in third place in the prediction market, with a trading volume of about 1/3 of Polymarket, and has generated approximately 16M in fee income over the past four months. The last private round valuation of PM was 12B, so conservatively calculating at 20%, Opinions' valuation is around 2B; 2⃣ Pre-market price Currently, the pre-market price of $OPN is at 0.638, corresponding to an FDV of about 640M, with a fee of 0.005% which is relatively normal. 3⃣ Points price A few days ago, the OTC price of points reached 25U/point. If the airdrop is calculated at 5%-10% of the total token supply, the estimated valuation is above $1.5B. Currently, the related FDV market prices on Polymarket deviate significantly from the above valuations and are completely undervalued: > The lowest tier of 250M YES is 90c, equivalent to a 10% return. > The price for 500M YES is only 59c, with odds close to 2X. > The price for 800M YES is 24c, with odds of 4X+ > The price for 1B YES is 15c, with odds of 6X. This also indirectly indicates that the market sentiment towards TGE is pessimistic and conservative. The risk for Opinions lies in the significant selling pressure after TGE; the strategy of “exchanging points for users + liquidity” may easily fail after TGE. Nevertheless, I believe Opinions' TGE performance will be good, at least better than Lighter, and may even follow a script similar to XPL. The reasons are as follows: 🌟 Opinions must achieve a first-mover advantage, meaning a larger space for valuation growth. It is known that Polymarket has TGE expectations + business growth expectations from the World Cup & midterm elections, and the significance of Opinions launching its token early is to capture more liquidity and market cap growth. 🌟 From an operational perspective, the project team needs to maintain or even boost the token price in the short term to maintain market confidence. The Opinions team certainly knows that users will churn, so reasonable airdrop unlocking terms + market cap management are very necessary for short-term user retention and activation. 🌟 I believe the Opinions team's sense of the secondary market is strong. From the various promotional rhythms before TGE, it is clear that the team has the ability to create buzz, from @ForrestOLAB retweeting a passerby’s tweet saying he also doesn’t know the listing time, to the promotional rhythms of Binance Alpha, Binance wallet booster, and Coinbase listing, all causing significant price fluctuations in related prediction markets....