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I looked at the market cap prediction opening price for OP today.
If we consider a market cap of 200m-500m, then basically most of the retail investors will have no suspense in making a profit.
Actually, with Polymarket issuing tokens, it’s uncertain whether they will give any to the community.
Now Polymarket has also launched an IPO.
If the tokens and stocks have the same rights, I think the chances of giving to retail investors are not very high.
And even if we take a step back and say they do give to retail investors, how many Polymarket users are there?
How many big players are there?
Professional profit-takers will definitely not have big profits.
Predictions are completely rewarding real players.
Many studios have heavily invested in OP.
If it weren't for the low cost, they would probably have made a profit by now.
I have an immature idea.
I previously analyzed this prediction product.
It has a strong insider nature and requires very strong market makers.
Because there are too many insiders, only the combination of Perpdex and predictions is the ultimate form.
In other words, those who only do predictions are just a flash in the pan.
This is also the reason why I have never engaged in prediction projects.
Currently, it seems that the backpack EDGEX will also launch predictions.
And JUP has already launched a prediction market.
GRVT seems to be announcing the next version with predictions as well.
If that’s the case, predictions will turn into accessories of Perpdex except for the real top players.
Then this year, those who heavily invested in several prediction platforms thinking it was the main narrative will probably all end up hanging on the tree.
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall.
I personally think this narrative has a low risk-reward ratio.
So aside from participating in LIMIT, I haven’t done anything else.
There’s no need to chase every hot topic. ...

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