thoughts on capex: -last weeks sell off: momentum driven -the interpretation it happened because capex is imprudent: short sighted SaaS brain syndrome Amazon and Google’s stocks both fell by roughly their announced ‘26 capex spend announcements last week (Google -$113b on $185b capex, Amazon -$178b on -$200b). the market punished investment during what was also one of the highest vol weeks for momentum stocks in history (chart) Summary 2026 CAPEX vs (2025): AMZN: $200B ($100B) GOOG: $185B ($91B) MSFT: $150B ($118B) META: $135B ($72B) ORCL: $79B ($35B) TSLA: $20B ($9B) Totals: $750B+ ('26) vs $400B ('25) vs 240B ('24) vs 140B (2023) lest we forget OBBBA bonus depreciation turns capex into higher FCF at fiscal year end. from MS in July: We size the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act on Free Cash Flow across the major tech players, where we could see a ~30%/22%/5% uplift to '26 FCF for AMZN, META and GOOGL, which we expect will be used to deepen their competitive advantage in GenAI and deliver more near term FCF to investors. this is happening now: Amazon just reported paying $1.2b in taxes on $90b of 2025 net income, -87% in fiscal liabilities YoY. the bill is designed to encourage this by enabling hyperscalers to directly write off ordinary income with this expenditure, including financing, of which last week showed us there is appetite for after Oracle’s IG offering for $25b was 5x over subscribed Jassy told the market Amazon is growing revenue 24% YoY. the WACC of this capex is closer to 8-12%. the midterms are coming and Rs are losing ground so the capex blowouts could very well be a combination of:...