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I listened to the interview with Manus, Ji Yichao, and Zhang Xiaojun.
I have a very strong feeling:
Manus's success is essentially not about "doing the right things," but rather "not doing the wrong things."
The six co-founders are all serial entrepreneurs.
From the very beginning, they made several extremely counterintuitive, yet almost perfect decisions in hindsight:
1️⃣ Not training models
At the height of the large model arms race, they proactively gave up the most costly, most competitive, and most self-indulgent path.
2️⃣ Not serving ordinary users
They directly provide AI assistants for high-net-worth individuals, essentially prioritizing "payment capability" before discussing "scale."
3️⃣ Decisively choosing internationalization
They decisively chose to target the U.S. users with the strongest payment capabilities; they decisively abandoned the domestic market and accepted U.S. VCs.
The commonality of these choices is simple:
Each step was a rational decision aimed at "maximizing expected returns," rather than emotional entrepreneurship.
What inspires me most about Manus is not "what products they made,"
but rather: truly seasoned entrepreneurs often win by having their own unique insights.
Most failed startups are not due to a lack of effort,
but because every step seems "reasonable," yet when combined, it results in disaster.
In contrast, Manus seems to have every step firmly within the "correct range."
This is not luck; it is judgment honed through experience.

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