Polymarket doesn't study the rules = just giving away money, the last-minute player lost 200,000 U I studied the rules for 10 minutes, picked up 30x and made a total of 30,000 U Here's the thing, I and @Btc_Crush @0xzheng888 found a huge price difference between OP and PM regarding the Kodiak market cap prediction, OP buys YES: 60U→100U; PM buys NO: 10U→100U, betting a total of 70U to earn 100U, with a 30% arbitrage opportunity. But after placing the bet, I realized something was off. The price difference should have anchored back, but instead, it kept widening. I started going through the rules, and it was mind-boggling— the settlement logic on both sides was completely different, theoretically allowing for a double loss and going to zero (at this point, I had already lost 10,000 U). Just when I was about to accept the loss, I noticed that the settlement rules on PM were very vague: based on the closing price of the "most liquid market," everyone assumed it was Gate because it had the highest trading volume, but I went through all the exchanges I could find and discovered that the most liquid one was actually Kodiak's own built-in DEX, which had a liquidity of 400,000 U, and the price for NO was only 3–5, meaning there was a 20–33x payout. So a few of us started to aggressively bet on NO, totaling several thousand U. _____________________________________ In fact, the reason this bet was profitable was largely because a guy named CR7 came in at the last minute, spending 200,000 U to push the YES price up to 90+. At that moment, I knew: he was going to settle the bill for us 🤣 so we could buy NO at such a low price. The final result: the guy lost 200,000 U and left, while we made 30x, pocketing 30,000 U. The only feeling afterward was: even the current largest prediction market is quite makeshift. The data sources are unclear, the settlements are vague, and it all relies on what everyone thinks. But the more makeshift it is, the more opportunities there are, which is why people are giving away money in the rules.