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A scalp is a trade. A hold is a thesis.
When a quick scalp quietly turns into a long-term hold, that’s rarely conviction, it’s indecision mixed with hope.
Before you enter, be clear:
- Is this a scalp or a hold?
- How early am I, actually?
- Who is the marginal buyer from here?
- If this stalls, who becomes the marginal seller?
Late news in a weak market rarely creates new buyers. It mainly provides liquidity for people already in.
If something was meant to be a scalp and price doesn’t behave, you cut it.
Averaging down at that point isn’t managing risk, it’s avoiding a decision.
The skill is recognising when the idea is invalid and exiting early before a trade turns into a "hope" position.
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