This brings up a good point of forecasting vs trading. My forecast is that there are things ahead of us that should be tailwinds, so I am bullish mid/long term. My trading was that I took a stab at some longs when BTC was at the 50W. The trade was invalidated, the forecast was not. I use my forecasts to inform myself on the upcoming environment for my trades. The fact I have a bullish forecast means I'm looking for a setup to long again, but critically (this is the whole point of this post here) I will not be taking those longs until the trades themselves make sense and are good R:R, as in the setup on the chart is right and risk manageable. So my forecast can remain bullish but as long as BTC is just lower low after lower low, I'm not taking longs. Hope that makes sense how these two seemingly opposed dynamics co-exist.

In other words, if you knew some catalyst was going to be bullish for a token but it's currently falling day after day, you'd probably wait for it to stabilize even though you know something is coming that's good.