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As humans we crave simple, unifying explanations to everything even when the truth is complicated.
It doesn't seem like what happened during the last 24 hours can be explained by one bad actor, although I've heard plenty of conspiracy theories now.
I would also be very skeptical of takes like "this proves that defi is better than cefi," which is an oversimplification at best.
It seems as though the truth is overenthusiasm in markets met with cracks in the fundamental infrastructure.
It doesn't need to be any more complicated than that.
However, I do think a couple of interesting truths have surfaced that will take some time for the market to digest.
1. ADLs can be negotiated - I think this immediately strikes everyone as "smart move by Guy, but seems unfair." But the broader implication is that if certain entities (might be more than just Ethena!) get protection, then the rest of the positions on exchanges are more at risk of liquidation and there is zero transparency.
2. Hard coding - one of the age old debates in DeFi risk is back on the table. It's a really tough one, because on the one hand it feels hard to advocate for something that would produce more liquidations. However, as the saying goes, "you can't destroy risk you can only transform it." I think we'll see this concept come under much more scrutiny in the near future.
3. The market - we may not be on as solid of footing as everyone thought. There's some psychological scar tissue that will need to be worked through after seeing assets wick down that hard. I've never seen a crash of this magnitude that the market digested in one weekend, and I think it's pretty unlikely that happens in this instance.
So overall, every threadoooor out there is vying for their simple explanation as to what happened but afaict there isn't one.
The much more important takeaways are what facts have come to light that weren't widely known before, which will more time to become impactful.
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