$KAIA Analysis Potential scenario: Long entry on acceptance above 0.1562 with RSI bullish divergence confirmation. Invalidation below dQuarter VAL (0.1537). Initial target – reclaim of dYear VWAP at 0.1595. RSI: A minor bullish divergence formed, currently oversold, indicating a potential short-term bounce or consolidation before any further downside. Fundamental Catalysts for Kaia Chain: 1. Regulatory and Stablecoin Support: South Korea’s President plans to approve crypto ETFs and enable KRW stablecoins on @KaiaChain. This positions Kaia as a foundational infrastructure for real-world stablecoin adoption by major Korean enterprises, potentially unlocking practical use cases such as tourism payments, QR-code payments via Web3 wallets, and everyday retail transactions powered by blockchain. 2. Korea Stablecoin Hackathon: Starting August 1, Kaia partners with @Tether_to, KakaoPay, LINE NEXT and @dapp_portal for a ₩100M prize hackathon focusing on: 3. KRW stablecoin concepts: USDT dApps, deployable to LINE’s 196M-user ecosystem, supported by South Korean lawmaker Min Byung-deok. 4. Technical Innovations: Gas Abstraction: Users can pay transaction fees directly in USDT without holding $KAIA, removing friction. Chain Abstraction: @ArcanaNetwork integration enables seamless multichain interactions (USDC, USDT, ETH).

Another day another golden HASH RIBBON BUY

DOGE tapped the 1H EMA200 and bounced clean off it. Now it’s heading straight into a cluster of resistances - 365D VWAP, 7D VWAP, and dMonth VAH all stacked above. If DOGE struggles at any of those, the move likely rolls over toward 0.227/0.217. Personally, I’ve already taken a small long and I’m ready to add lower if the opportunity comes. Target for the long 0.296

The Altcoin Speculation Index by @capriole_fund supports @abetrade theory about an upcoming correction in the altcoin market. The indicator confirms we’re in a bullish phase for alts, but the metrics are flashing warning signs. I’d say we’ve got, at most, another month of upside before a correction kicks in. But that doesn’t mean the bull cycle is over - most likely, we’re just looking at a correction like we saw in May, before entering another strong growth phase in Q4.

thanks for playing ☺️

When the Bitcoin Heater indicator hit the red zone back in October ‘24, BTC kept rallying until January 2025. Interestingly, Heater started cooling off in December, triggering a correction, but then price surged even higher in January. On July 10 this year, Heater once again entered the red zone for the first time since ‘24. Drawing parallels with last year's action, we might have about three more months of bullish momentum before a correction sets in. To get the full picture, I recommend using multiple indicators on 1D/1W charts, specifically MVRV-Z, Heater, RSI, and BBWP. I'm also a big fan of @Delphi_Digital Top Signal Dashboard, which conveniently combines several of these indicators. h/t @capriole_fund

Last few days of July will set the stage for markets for the rest of the year imo. FOMC meeting where dovish dissents are looking very likely QRA meeting where we will get a look into how willing Bessent is going to be to try to weaponize treasury issuance for the first time since being Tsy chair Tarriff letter deadlines Supreme court will begin deliberating on whether tariffs via executive order are legal or not No big edge on either side right now personally, will just react once we get clarity. Stay frosty

Still comfortable sitting relatively long here. While things are getting frothier overall, coins don’t look locally/globally topped to me and actually still relatively healthy across the board: - Funding is quite tame (majors 10-15%; HL reset on the downticks this afternoon). There are, of course, a lot more DN funds in the space keeping this in line but that was also true in Dec/Jan, and we got to 40-60+% then. - We’re 11 days into the BTC ATH break, and risk-on seasons typically run at least 4-6 weeks. This is a very weak one so far as we’re consolidating ~5% above the previous ATH level; the 80k OTC whale is mostly to blame for this. - Crypto treasury companies (CTCs/TCs) are still fresh for now and able to launch at decent mNAVs (2-3x). Some older names are compressing closer to 1-1.5x, but until we see a good chunk trade below par and newer launches immediately fail out the gate, the flywheel still has room to spin. - OTHERS nowhere near the Dec/Jan highs and still 15% off from the 24Q1 top. OTHERS/BTC is still at May/April levels from this year. - OTHERS OI still ~4-5% away from flipping BTC's OI. Additionally, once the market fully digests the OTC whale's flow, I expect BTC OI to get added aggressively on a move from mid-110s to 125-130, which should extend this current regime. The typical rolling down the risk curve model is obviously broken--BTC gains don’t translate into ETH/SOL gains. However, I believe that ETH/SOL gains do translate into alt gains, based on the type of participant that holds these in lieu of BTC (whether via ETFs/MSTR). This is starting to play out with OTHERS finally clearing 290-300bn. While we bottomed ~4 weeks ago in OTHERS, we’ve only really broken out of the March - June range on the day of BTC ATH break (July 10). With that said, CTCs have very clearly changed how this breakout is working. Some core differences I have noticed/adjustments I have made: - The CTC bid is price-insensitive, which means traditional support/resistance metrics do not work--see ETH blasting through 3300 and 3550. - CTCs rely on the flywheel of three Vs: Volume, Volatility, and Very-high-mNAV. Only CTCs that can accomplish all 3 are able to make a meaningful impact on the underlying coin. For now, that means only SOL and ETH are biddable in this narrative, with DOGE and XRP plausible contenders. - While some TCs are more traditional (MSTR, 3350) in how they view execution (long-term players looking to maximize BTC/sh), other TCs are more mercenary (exit liquidity for alts, such as the TAO/FET/ENA TCs, possibly even buying locked tokens) or even actively adversarial (h/t Giver on this realization). - Similar to 24Q4, the type of participant making money on this move is in ETFs (ETHA, ETHE) or the TCs (SBET/DFDV). This cohort is not rolling their PNL down the risk curve. However, natives also hold extensive amounts of ETH and SOL. While many CT-adjacent players were late/sidelined to this leg up, as they capitulate, get long, and hopefully ride the rising tide of the CTC bid, once they profit sufficiently, that PNL will come back to alts. IMHO alts will get bid - it will just take more time than longer, which actually extends the length of the cycle. I am long, in roughly decreasing size, ETH, SOL, XRP, PEPE, DOGE, TRUMP.

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Ethereum is winning the institutional adoption race. Our latest report unpacks why major organizations are adopting ETH as a strategic reserve asset. We include a simple thesis: Ethereum’s trillion-dollar catalyst is here. [1/7]