The analog to the late 1990’s continues to play out, with the post-tariff tantrum rally looking almost identical to the post-LTCM rally in late 1998.  We’ll see if the parallel continues. If the post-1994 soft landing bull market was launched by the Netscape IPO in August 1995, the current post-2022 soft landing rally seems punctuated by the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022.  If we take that analog literally (indexed to those dates and shown on the same log scale), we get the chart below.  It suggests that the AI boom is still in its infancy, the 75x P/E on the SPAC index notwithstanding (and that’s just for the profitable ones). However, if we adjust the analog by using the April 2025 and October 1998 correction lows and loosening our grip on the y-axis, we get the next chart, which suggests that we are further along the analog. My guess is that we are closer to the former than the latter, especially considering all the bubble talk happening right now.  Bubbles usually don’t burst while everyone is bracing for one.  They burst when the sceptics who saw one coming (and sold too early) succumb to their FOMO and come back in at the top.