I think the next big thing in Prediction Markets will be no-loss PMs. There are many savvy forecasters out there who may have an informational edge, but they’re too risk adverse to be interested in putting up market-moving capital to correct imperfect odds. One way to address this market of Super forecasters is through no-loss betting. Where forecasters commit capital and win a pro-rated reward for predicting correctly, but stand to retain their principal if they’re wrong. There are several ways this is being done in experiments atm but none of them are very compelling. The most common design is to pool capital in a yield-bearing instrument, then distribute the generated yield among accurate bettors. That model is cool, but it doesn’t scale well because the payouts are bound by the amount of yield generated; constraining mechanism designers and market curators alike. A more interesting design is something we had initially come up with for @truemarkets in the project’s early days, but never ended up building because PM mind share was much smaller at the time and it wasn’t clear if there would be demand for it. I’m starting to think this is something we should resurrect in the new year once we improve the liquidity profile of our standard markets. I’ll drop a hint as to what the model entails, the name should be plenty enough for yall to imagine the rest: Prediction Staking 🤌