🚨 THE FERTILITY FORECASTERS WHO NEVER LEARN: 40 YEARS OF BEING CATASTROPHICALLY WRONG OECD just released data showing demographers have overestimated fertility recovery for 4 straight decades. Not by a little. By magnitudes that should get people fired. The numbers: In 1980, OECD fertility was 2.2 births per woman. By 1994 it dropped to 1.9. Demographers' response? "It'll recover to 2.1 by mid-century." It did not. By 2002, fertility cratered to 1.66. The experts doubled down: "It'll bounce back to 1.85 by 2047." By 2012, there was a tiny uptick to 1.75, and suddenly they're predicting 1.8 by 2050. Current reality? 1.5 births per woman in 2024. And they're still projecting recovery to 1.52 by 2050 and 1.54 by 2070. These aren't random errors. This is systematic institutional denial. Every single projection assumes fertility will magically reverse because the alternative - permanent below-replacement fertility - breaks every economic model that modern society is built on. The UN demographic forecasts are now considered conservative estimates by many scientists. A 2020 Lancet study calculates that contrary to UN figures, world population will have shrunk by 2100 and could potentially already be significantly lower than it is today. Think about what that means: The "official" projections that governments use for pension planning, infrastructure investment, and debt modeling are the optimistic scenario. Reality is tracking worse. ...