Cockroach Assets. The future path is uncertain, but the market already sits in a zone where disciplined buyers should begin acting. This is bear buying territory, and the framework for operating here is fundamentally different from the framework you use in a bull. In a bull, selection quality defines returns. Dispersion widens, outliers dominate performance, and you need to identify the assets that outperform everything else. The entire exercise revolves around finding winners. A bear inverts the problem. Prices compress across the board, correlations rise, and the baseline probability of profit increases. In this environment, most assets will recover when conditions improve. Roughly 70% of what you buy will eventually make money purely through cycle rotation. This means the key variable becomes the set of positions you filter out. Your performance improves through exclusion. The limiting factor becomes the 30% that do not recover, either because they rug, decay, or lose relevance. These are the positions that create permanent loss, and permanent loss has a larger impact on cycle returns than any marginal gain from picking an outperformer. This leads to a simple operational rule: bear accumulation is a filtering exercise, not a discovery exercise. The objective is to remove fragility. Precision is unnecessary. Survival probability is the metric. This also clarifies why revisiting high-flyers from the previous bull is a common error. Their prior returns do not increase their survival odds. Many belong to the 30% bucket. Meanwhile, assets with continuity, liquidity, usage, and legit teams tend to fall in the 70% bucket even if they look unexciting at current prices. (i.e. A coin like FARTCOIN may look extremely cheap, yet its probability of landing in the 30% failure bucket is high. A coin like HYPE, supported by fundamentals and continuity, has stronger odds of ending up in the 70% that survive.) ...