Ok while we’re doing exponentials nuance. As I said in the QT, the unbounded up only exponential goes to actual infinity. Nothing goes up only forever. It’s a meme. Reality is closer to the others. So let’s break them down and discuss how this manifests in the market 👇 So logistic growth was discovered by analysing fish populations. Fish grow in a pond at a rate, their population grows and then you run out of lake. The fish population equilibrates at the size of the lake. My argument below is the size of our lake is the collective belief globally about crypto at that time. Think of it as a “belief ceiling”. We periodically saturate the pool of people that believe in crypto and often overshoot it (with hype) then we crash back down often below the rational ceiling until people start believing again. SBF really did a number on the collective belief structure last time, hence the long bear market. I think we’re roughly at an equilibrium point now. We’ve found all the believers and we’re at our ceiling hence the year of oscillating crab market. Gompertz style growth is very similar but the ramp is quicker. Very slow start, then bang, it takes off then we hit the carrying capacity quickly. Most tech adoption happens like this these days, largely thanks to things like social media virality. Some technology is about for a while, no one knows about it, then bang, viral, quick saturation hit. Power law saturation is just straight vertical until you hit saturation almost immediately. Now to markets. What it looks like you’ve got in the early days of up trend is pure exponential, but actually there is a finite number of humans who can and will adopt that technology at the time. Crypto is interesting because we have a live market price linked to that adoption so we see these curves in real time. What we actually get is S-S-S-curves as we open up new sets of believers. This is actually nice because it gives people chance to buy the asset whilst it’s in its growth phase. Gompertz style growth makes that harder, you have a window to buy low, but then the up trend is over quick. An asset bangs and you miss the boat easily. The problem is what we’ve actually got for the most part is power law saturation and that growth happens in the private markets. Assets find their saturated value before you get a chance to even buy them as VCs price them in behind closed doors. Then they launch at their saturated value. And often that saturated value is not actually correct because they’re networks that don’t have (real) users. We even started to do this without any product at all. This is why alts have been obliterated this year. Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana (and some others) actually had time in the market at under their true valuations allowing people to hit the up trend, hence their popularity. In order to get to the next higher belief ceiling we actually have to build stuff that makes people think this stuff is actually useful and can benefit their daily lives. It’s all about collective belief. The caveat being that actually crypto is insanely disruptive and even without new stuff collective belief could re-price bitcoin to a million dollars (quickly) simply by people believing that fiat currency m is going to zero (for example). And everything gets dragged up with it. So yeah, believe in exponentials, but realise that unbounded exponentials don’t actually exist.