I just watched the full interview of @HenrikZeberg on Bitcoin Archie. I've linked it in the comments, and highly recommend you watch it. I disagree with a lot of it, but he makes some great points. Let me first focus on his arguments: 1. First of all, he's a Danish business cycle / liquidity cycle macro guy -- not all that different from Michael Howell who has spoken in many of our spaces. 2. His framework is based on leading, coincident, and lagging indicators. He uses these to figure out where we are on the cycle. 3. The "leading indicators" include things like ISM, Housing Starts and Credit Spreads. They move before the business cycle. 4. The "coincident indicators" are GDP growth, Retail sales and Corporate Earnings with reflect the current state of the economy. 5. The last group is "lagging indicators" which are the last to move, often by a full year, which include Inflation and Unemployment. 6. His overall thesis is the Fed is generally "always late", focusing on "lagging" indicators, instead of the crossing of leading and coincident numbers. They should have massively cut a year ago, but they are afraid of inflation. 7. His general reading is that we will have a "Massive Recession" / Complete crash in the next 12 months taking down Equities and "Crypto" with it. 8. But he believes Bitcoin has another high left (possibly to 180K in the next few months) before the crash. 9. He thinks AI will accelerate the crash in equities by eliminating a ton of jobs. 10. All this leads to an ultra defensive "Gold + Cash" position. He thinks you should mainly be in these two assets and not Bitcoin until the cycle turns. OK, so now lets go to my critisms as a Bitcoiner:

WHERE I THINK HENRIK MISSES 1. Henrik, like most economists, does not understand that Bitcoin is not just "another crypto". Dismissing it as something fundamentally different than Gold completely misses the point: IT IS THE REPLACEMENT FOR GOLD 2. He's also dismissive of the new Fed (post Powell) dramatically changing the system, like they did under Covid. I have to admit, if Powell was just a year into his term, I would be more nervous, but I think its clear we are going to have massively looser monetary policy in just a few months. 3. He also glosses over the long term benefits of AI. This is where I think we have the biggest divergence. AI will be a massive wealth generator on all levels, and I think is the biggest reasons TO HOLD BITCOIN. In summary, I think he fundamentally does not understand Bitcoin or AI and his doomer advice will keep you poor. Holding cash is not a great idea when the Fed is going to flood the world with money and assets and prices are about to skyrocket.