something is going on that is unprecedented - the wake of this can be seen in the monetary impulse (the flow (not stock) of total system bank loans and leases. the shadow bank - just an educated guess - likely doubles this in terms of flow

however this flow is with either only one of the most sudden largest balance sheet expansion and is just bloat - low powered money of true jobs economic growth expansion which we have never seen but in war methinks it is very even negative velocity low powered money with a-l -0(equity or production or whatever you want to call it = 0

if it is bloat what it is really is a power play where 3 or so power blocks scrambling to control AI as the eventual cap ex is so large only one will make it and must be a monopoly (like early ATT). so the first step in making a monopoly is control the capital/money

....so as to deny this start to the other blocks. the railroad blitz in last part of C19th is example where only two lines controlled all. all but a handful of railroads made it and then in a trust while others crashed

large boom busts occurred around this.

this boom assuming it is bloat of which the funds the other losing block must disgorge and crash, can be shown looking at the subsectors in the H8 report. in the main "all other" line in the H8 report. this line 25 is expanding at record speed.

this explains 120% of the total bank loans and leases. this results in two monetary impulses - one as is and the other with the recent massive expansion being bloat, a power grab and should have some if not all of it eliminated from monetary impulse. the two depictions. i call the adjusted "core"

the core monetary impulse in combination with fiscal resulting in total impulse un adjusted shows a recession might have occurred or the economy is under pressure

the total impulse with monetary impulse adjusted to "core" has a total impulse close to breaking 0 and suggests a recession has already started.

the market believes that the AI fund raise going immediately into capex and raises the economy. considering the system bank only show, say, 50% of the total AI flow it is reasonable to think US econ will hold at 4% and then go on upwards - golden times.

i however am pretty well convinced this bloat given the power play race over funds and the lowers will crash or disgorge funds quickly - given the stock market is pricing (or was pricing) the bull case, the shock of realizing this was in majority bloat will cause a crash.

this should and will be in a TMF post but sending this in rough form now to yourself as you have been complimentary and attentive love your feedback especially if critical still rather alone in this though more folks coming around. my short is still long JPM and SPX OTM put