🚨 Truflation September BLS CPI FORECAST: 3.0% YoY 📄 The following brief summary is based on the detailed 10-page Truflation Monthly Report shared with premium subscribers on October 13. Tariff effects keep biting, utilities surge on AI-driven demand, and goods inflation overtakes services. The labor market is stagnating, but GDP surprises to the upside. September highlights: 🔼 Upward contributors: Utilities +2.2% MoM (+4.1% YoY) Apparel +0.9% (+2.9%) Alcohol & Tobacco +0.9% (+3.2%) Household Durables +0.5% (+3.9%) 🔽 Downward contributors: Communications −0.2% (−1.2%) Housing 0.0% (+0.4%) Food 0.0% (+3.4%) Macro check: 📊 GDP: Q2 revised up to +3.8% (2-year high). Net exports added +4.8 pts as import contraction boosted growth. Q3 GDPNow points to another 3.8%. Consumer spending +0.6% MoM (+5.0% YoY); business investment +8.5% in August. 👷 Labor: Unemployment steady at 4.3%. Private-sector jobs −32K (ADP); small firms −48K. Hiring intentions at lowest since 2009. Structural strains from immigration limits + AI adoption weigh on labor creation. 💵 Inflation: Goods-led price pressure persists. Tariffs + inventory replenishment lifting import costs. Services cool as housing and labor soften. Core CPI eases; headline edges to 3.0% YoY (from 2.9%). 🏦 Fed: Growth and tariff pressures leave less room for cuts, but labor softness keeps a 25 bp cut on table. The Fed is balancing “growth vs. inflation” more tightly than any time since 2022. 🧾 Fiscal: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act adds short-term demand boosts (tax cuts, SALT cap increase, $1K youth deposit), keeping consumer spending resilient and utilities under pressure. 📈 Outlook: Upward price pressures to persist into Q4 and early 2026 as restocking meets tariff costs and energy demand. Consumer expectations climbed to 4.8% (U. Michigan) and 3.4% (NY Fed). Inflation is within range, but not yet behind us. 🌐 Even during these 23 days of government shutdown, Truflation has continued reporting in real-time, powered by @TRUFNETWORK.